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104 lines
3.4 KiB
Python
104 lines
3.4 KiB
Python
import xgboost as xgb
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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import os
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from sklearn.metrics import r2_score
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from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
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import matplotlib as mpl
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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mpl.rcParams['font.sans-serif'] = ['kaiti']
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pd.set_option('display.width', None)
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def season(x):
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if str(x)[5:7] in ('04', '10'):
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return 0
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elif str(x)[5:7] in ('01', '02', '03', '05', '06', '09', '11', '12'):
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return 1
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else:
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return 2
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def month(x):
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if str(x)[5:7] in ('08', '09', '10', '12', '01', '02'):
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return 1
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else:
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return 0
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def normal(nd):
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high = nd.describe()['75%'] + 1.5 * (nd.describe()['75%'] - nd.describe()['25%'])
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low = nd.describe()['25%'] - 1.5 * (nd.describe()['75%'] - nd.describe()['25%'])
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return nd[(nd < high) & (nd > low)]
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parent_dir = os.path.abspath(os.path.join(os.getcwd(), os.pardir))
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data = pd.read_excel(os.path.join(parent_dir, '入模数据/杭州.xlsx'))
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data['dtdate'] = pd.to_datetime(data['dtdate'], format='%Y-%m-%d')
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data['year'] = data['dtdate'].dt.year
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data.set_index('dtdate', inplace=True)
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data = data.loc[normal(data['售电量']).index]
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# list2 = []
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# list0 = []
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# list1 = []
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# for i in ('01','02','03','04','05','06','07','08','09','10','11','12'):
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# month_index = data.index.strftime('%Y-%m-%d').str[5:7] == f'{i}'
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# if data.loc[month_index]['售电量'].mean() >= data['售电量'].describe()['75%']:
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# list2.append(i)
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# elif data.loc[month_index]['售电量'].mean() <= data['售电量'].describe()['25%']:
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# list0.append(i)
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# else:
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# list1.append(i)
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# print(list0,list1,list2)
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data['season'] = data.index.map(season)
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df_train = data[-180:]
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df_eval = data.loc['2023-12']
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print(df_train)
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X = df_train[['tem_max', 'tem_min', '24ST', 'holiday', 'season', 'year']]
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X_eval = df_eval[['tem_max', 'tem_min', '24ST', 'holiday', 'season', 'year']]
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y = df_train['售电量']
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x_train, x_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)
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model = xgb.XGBRegressor(max_depth=6, learning_rate=0.05, n_estimators=150)
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model.fit(x_train, y_train)
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y_pred = model.predict(x_test)
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result_test = pd.DataFrame({'test': y_test, 'pred': y_pred}, index=y_test.index)
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# 指标打印
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print(abs(y_test - y_pred).mean() / y_test.mean())
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eval_pred = model.predict(X_eval)
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result_eval = pd.DataFrame({'eval': df_eval['售电量'], 'pred': eval_pred}, index=df_eval['售电量'].index)
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goal = (result_eval['eval'][-3:].sum() - result_eval['pred'][-3:].sum()) / result_eval['eval'].sum()
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print('goal:', goal)
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goal2 = (result_eval['eval'][-23:].sum() - result_eval['pred'][-23:].sum()) / result_eval['eval'].sum()
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print('goal2:', goal2)
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print(result_eval)
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print('r2:', r2_score(y_test, y_pred))
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X_eval = np.array([
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[13.8, 1.4, 0, 0, 1, 2023],
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[10.1, 2.7, 0, 0, 1, 2023],
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[15.3, 6.3, 0, 3, 1, 2023],
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[12.2, 1.8, 0, 3, 1, 2023]
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])
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print(model.predict(X_eval))
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result = model.predict(X_eval)
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result = pd.DataFrame(result, index=['2023-12-28', '2023-12-29', '2023-12-30', '2023-12-31'])
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result = pd.concat((result_eval['eval'], result))
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result.index = result.index.map(lambda x: str(x)[:10])
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result.columns = ['预测值']
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print(result)
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with pd.ExcelWriter(r'C:\Users\鸽子\Desktop\市区日电量预测_1229.xlsx', mode='a', if_sheet_exists='replace',
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engine='openpyxl') as writer:
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result.to_excel(writer, sheet_name='杭州') |